Lumenogic prediction-
market technology


We offer a full suite of platforms optimized for prediction markets, competitive forecasting, and crowdsourced innovation

For over a decade, Lumenogic has been an innovative and prolific developer of various on-line platforms customised to address specific crowd-forecasting and crowd-innovation problems in public and enterprise settings.

Prediction Market (PM)
Designed to predict event probabilities

Key Features:

  • The trading engine is a pure continuous double auction (Intrade-like, but without trading fees) featuring binary or multinomial outcomes.
  • Participants trade directly with each other through an open order book.
  • In addition, the platform includes several exclusive leading-edge features:

    • Quantum-conditional outcomes
    • Liquidity-boosting arbitrage robot
    • Artificial-intelligence trading agents
    • Ultra-light market maker
Competitive Forecasting (CF)
Designed to forecast continuous variables, such as sales, KPIs, or delivery dates

Competitive forecasting enables as much information aggregation as markets do, but without requiring that participants learn to translate their opinions into trading decisions.

Key Features:

  • Participants make [Low, High] predictions using a dual-handle slider along a continuous scale.
  • Participants are rewarded for accuracy, precision and timeliness.
  • Easy and intuitive to use - no learning curve.
  • The distribution revealed by the market is just as important as the average forecast.
  • Highly flexible in allowing display of reference or supporting data.
  • Yields insights as to participant confidence with a narrow range indicating higher confidence than a wider range.
  • Provides insights beyond the consensus prediction itself to reveal differences between key cohorts and reasons underlying predictions.
Competitive High-Information Prediction System (CHIPS)
Designed for maximum forecasting Q&A flexibility

CHIPS enables the operators to ask any type of question: binary, multinomial, winner-take-all, continuous variable, etc.

CHIPS allows participants to provide free-form forecast distributions rather than single-point forecasts (like PM) or forecast ranges (like CF).

Key Features:

  • Participants allocate scarce resources (tokens) across a set of discrete options.
  • Easy and intuitive to use - no learning curve.
  • Participant's forecast confidence is captured by the number of tokens invested.
  • Free-form forecast distribution answers capture the highest amount of information compared to single-point forecasts or forecast ranges.
  • Provides insights beyond the consensus prediction itself to reveal differences between key cohorts and reasons underlying predictions.
Idea Pageant ? For Multistage Crowdsourced Innovation
Designed to elicit, prioritise, and score the highest-potential ideas to solve a problem

This platform enables a robust yet playful 3-steps collective ideation process:

1. Generate ideas
2. Prioritise ideas
3. Score top ideas

Key Features:

  • Ideation: participants propose new ideas, see each other's ideas and discuss them.
  • Prioritisation: participants bet green and red tokens on ideas most likely to succeed or fail. Tokens are scarce so participants need to be very discriminating in their choices. Participants win points with every well-placed token.
  • Scoring: participants score highest-priority ideas on various dimensions, like feasability and impact.
  • Easy and intuitive to use - no learning curve.
  • Cohorts-analysis of results yields a deeply insightful organisational X-ray of where consensus and disagreements lie.

See these tools in action!